To be very clear, I do not have access to secret information. I have not been peering through Valve's office windows with binoculars in an attempt to spot concept art or lounged on Valve's lawn until co-founder Gabe Newell emerged for a photo op. My prediction that Valve will finally start talking about Half-Life 3 in 2012 is based on industry trends and my best guesses.

The original Half-Life's release in 1998 gut-punched the industry, defining the modern first-person shooter. Story, character and interesting context mattered as much as your ammo count. Half-Life 2 developed the formula even further, setting protagonist Gordon Freeman in the brilliantly realized dystopian metropolis of City 17. The pacing, distinctive sound design, thrilling encounters and memorable characters made for an unforgettable experience, which continued through Episode One and Two. Then, with momentum building toward the climactic moment of the entire series, and in many ways the first-person shooter genre as a whole, Valve went silent.

Episode Three never showed up. We were left, mouths agape, with the cliffhanger ending of Episode Two and a long list of unanswered questions. That was almost five years ago. In the time since, Valve has released Left 4 Dead, Left 4 Dead 2 and Portal 2 and beta tests are currently underway for Dota 2 and Counter-Strike: Global Offensive. Duke Nukem Forever was actually released. It's time for Gordon Freeman to return.

To be clear, I'm not expecting a reveal of Episode Three. It's been too long for an episodic format to make sense any more. Instead, it'll be a full-length game, likely called Half-Life 3. So what makes 2012 special? Two main reasons.

According to a reliable rumor report, Microsoft and Sony will unveil their next-generation consoles at E3 2012, which takes place this June. Sure, Xbox 360s and PlayStation 3s continue to sell, but I think it's time to tease something new. Microsoft's console has been on store shelves for nearly seven years at this point, Sony's for six. If the next Xbox and PlayStation are announced at this year's E3, they likely wouldn't show up until at least late 2013. By that time, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 will be almost eight years old. It seems like a first reveal of next-generation hardware in 2012 is a sure thing, most likely during an E3 2012 press conference. Nintendo's already teased the Wii U, now it's Microsoft and Sony's turns.

Though Half-Life used to be PC-only, after Episode Two and The Orange Box it's essentially a multiplatform franchise. I believe Valve can't talk about Half-Life right now because it's waiting for Microsoft and Sony to officially reveal their in-development hardware. Once that information is public, it gives Valve the green light to say what's next. Microsoft and Sony could even be in talks with Valve to make Half-Life 3 a launch title for their systems, certainly a powerful incentive for consumers to pick up expensive new hardware.

Edit: Shortly after I published this, IGN learned Sony's Kaz Hirai stated there would be no announcements at E3 2012. Even with that out in public, I stand by my prediction.

Dota 2 is in beta testing right now, and from what I've played, it's in great shape. If it were released today, it'd be a top tier game, easily one of the best competitive experiences on the market. Its performance is stable, gameplay rock-solid and it offers a large selection of heroes. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive doesn't feel quite as far along in beta, but it's still a lot of fun to play. Anyway, I say all this not only to reiterate how good Valve's games are, but to point out that both of these games should be ready to go by the end of 2012.

That means nothing is scheduled for 2013, which means Valve pretty much has to announce something this year. I can't imagine it's yet time for Left 4 Dead 3 or another Portal, and Team Fortress 2 as a free-to-play experience seems to be working out quite well, regularly ranking in the top ten most played games on Steam. I suppose it's always possible for Valve to announce an all-new project, but the timing seems perfect for another Half-Life.


It's still possible Valve says nothing at E3 or in the months after. But if Valve wasn't waiting for the announcement of next-generation hardware to reveal Half-Life 3, then what else accounts for Valve's intense secrecy regarding the franchise? An announcement has to happen eventually, and I feel like the chances have never been higher than in 2012.