002 wrote What is the current value of each car? I'd say if your car isn't worth very much / if the new car is over double the value of your car then you should wait. The car market is crashing (especially those that get poor mpg) so while you might get a better deal on your trade now, you'll lose hand over fist when looking at how much you spent on the new car.

Disc wrote

002 wrote What is the current value of each car? I'd say if your car isn't worth very much / if the new car is over double the value of your car then you should wait. The car market is crashing (especially those that get poor mpg) so while you might get a better deal on your trade now, you'll lose hand over fist when looking at how much you spent on the new car.

what makes you think its crashing? its still rising in tons of areas and has yet to fall, our dealership is still seeing the same RBB and same auction numbers etc. was your comment just a guess or do you know something everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country dont know

002 wrote

Disc wrote

002 wrote What is the current value of each car? I'd say if your car isn't worth very much / if the new car is over double the value of your car then you should wait. The car market is crashing (especially those that get poor mpg) so while you might get a better deal on your trade now, you'll lose hand over fist when looking at how much you spent on the new car.

what makes you think its crashing? its still rising in tons of areas and has yet to fall, our dealership is still seeing the same RBB and same auction numbers etc. was your comment just a guess or do you know something everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country dont know

The data is what's indicating that the market is declining lol. The numbers are slightly different depending on what website you go to, but here's what CarGurus and KBB have to say.

Click to View Content

https://i.imgur.com/KQYMl6E.png
https://i.imgur.com/Fi1qzty.png

As for why, there's more supply than previous years, and as of current there's less demand which naturally makes the prices go down. Since we seen a sharp increase in price due to Covid wreaking havoc on the car industry (chip supplies, manufacturing down turns, ect), we will start to see a pretty steady decrease over the coming year(s). So no, I don't know something that everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country don't know, this is pretty common knowledge, I'd almost say especially for dealerships and retail stores lol. Just like any business, they will ride out these huge price increases for as long as they can.

Disc wrote

002 wrote

Disc wrote

002 wrote What is the current value of each car? I'd say if your car isn't worth very much / if the new car is over double the value of your car then you should wait. The car market is crashing (especially those that get poor mpg) so while you might get a better deal on your trade now, you'll lose hand over fist when looking at how much you spent on the new car.

what makes you think its crashing? its still rising in tons of areas and has yet to fall, our dealership is still seeing the same RBB and same auction numbers etc. was your comment just a guess or do you know something everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country dont know

The data is what's indicating that the market is declining lol. The numbers are slightly different depending on what website you go to, but here's what CarGurus and KBB have to say.

Click to View Content

https://i.imgur.com/KQYMl6E.png
https://i.imgur.com/Fi1qzty.png

As for why, there's more supply than previous years, and as of current there's less demand which naturally makes the prices go down. Since we seen a sharp increase in price due to Covid wreaking havoc on the car industry (chip supplies, manufacturing down turns, ect), we will start to see a pretty steady decrease over the coming year(s). So no, I don't know something that everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country don't know, this is pretty common knowledge, I'd almost say especially for dealerships and retail stores lol. Just like any business, they will ride out these huge price increases for as long as they can.

well here at our GM store, we still have 0 chips incoming and are now doing retrofits on heated seat etc on new models bc no chips. and at auctions were having the same issue with getting inventor and are having to pay 2-30% over KBB RBB from 2019 pricing so that is factually not the case

002 wrote

Disc wrote

002 wrote

Disc wrote

002 wrote What is the current value of each car? I'd say if your car isn't worth very much / if the new car is over double the value of your car then you should wait. The car market is crashing (especially those that get poor mpg) so while you might get a better deal on your trade now, you'll lose hand over fist when looking at how much you spent on the new car.

what makes you think its crashing? its still rising in tons of areas and has yet to fall, our dealership is still seeing the same RBB and same auction numbers etc. was your comment just a guess or do you know something everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country dont know

The data is what's indicating that the market is declining lol. The numbers are slightly different depending on what website you go to, but here's what CarGurus and KBB have to say.

Click to View Content

https://i.imgur.com/KQYMl6E.png
https://i.imgur.com/Fi1qzty.png

As for why, there's more supply than previous years, and as of current there's less demand which naturally makes the prices go down. Since we seen a sharp increase in price due to Covid wreaking havoc on the car industry (chip supplies, manufacturing down turns, ect), we will start to see a pretty steady decrease over the coming year(s). So no, I don't know something that everyone at dealerships and retail stores around the country don't know, this is pretty common knowledge, I'd almost say especially for dealerships and retail stores lol. Just like any business, they will ride out these huge price increases for as long as they can.

well here at our GM store, we still have 0 chips incoming and are now doing retrofits on heated seat etc on new models bc no chips. and at auctions were having the same issue with getting inventor and are having to pay 2-30% over KBB RBB from 2019 pricing so that is factually not the case

Yes the issues are still out there, however I believe you missed the point. Just like you said, we are still over what prices were in 2019, however if you zoom in to the past 30, 60 90 days, we are starting to see a decrease with the numbers going down more and more each month. There is expected to be a chip shortage into 2024, however a shortage is just that, a shortage.

For example, and I'm just giving made up numbers but lets say during the height of it all these chips were being produced at 25% the rate they were needed, therefore leaving a 75% shortage. That's obviously a big issue. Now we're catching up and we might be at say 90%. That still leave a technical shortage of 10%, however the issue isn't as big as it was in years prior. Factually, supply chain issues in regards to chips are clearing up, which aids in catching up to the previous deficit. JD Power is forecasting a drop in used car prices between now and early 2023.

That is all assuming that everything stays the way it is now, however it does get more in dept than that. The federal reserve is raising rates (in home loans we've already watched them double in a year) and as anyone would guess, the higher the interest rate, the less someone can afford. Here's how the auto industry is doing on that front.

Click to View Content

https://i.imgur.com/u0DPzlK.png

Another driving factor is that the pandemic taught us that a lot of us can work from home. In doing that we put a lot less wear and tear on our vehicles and therefore we don't need to replace them as often which decreases demand.

When the person that works from home finally decides to trade in their car after say 10 years now (average American keeps a car for 8 years, but as explained above that number may rise), they get hit with that 6% interest rate instead of the 4% which means they can afford less. The average monthly car payment is $667 for a new car and $515 for a used car. Just playing with numbers here, say you put 10% down on your car, at 4% interest you were able to afford a $40,000 new car and a $31,000 used car. at 6% interest your buying power gets decreased so you loose $2,000 in buying power right off the bat.


TLDR: chip manufacturing is making a come back so more people will be able to buy new cars again which means less demand for used cars, and therefore a price drop. Interest rates are on the rise which means we can't afford what we used to, so dealerships cant sell cars for as much as they used to, which in turn means you get less on your trade because they can't sell it for as much as they used to. in 3 years we watched the used car market fo up 42% which is extremally un stable. Will we see an overnight collapse? No. Will we watch it start to ebb off over the coming years? Absolutely. There's nothing to indicate prices will continue to rise or even stay the same, prices are on the fall.

002 wrote Well I guess moral of the story is everywhere else is seeing a downward trend with no evidence to support the idea that prices will continue to stay at their current rate or even rise, I've shown factual graphs as to what's happening in the world today but I would figure out what dealer Disc works at and stay clear of that place lol.